| Probability provides a measure for the
likelihood that something will happen. Beware, however,
that this measure can never predict the number of times
that an occurrence will actually happen. Being able
to quantify the likely occurrence of an event is important
because most of the decisions that affect our lives
are based on likelihoods, rather than absolute certainties.
For example, if we are planning a garden party,
we may need to know how likely it is to rain at the
weekend. Someone who places a bet on a horse will
need to know what the odds are before they make a
decision. Potential expectant mothers may want to
know the likelihood that their child will be born
with a genetically inherited disease. House Insurance
companies base their premiums on the chance of someone
getting burgled in a particular street. Nuclear reactors
are designed to withstand a large range of failure
scenarios. These scenarios are each assessed based
on probability calculations. Clearly, probability
permeates our lives in many ways. This is why we
need to study it.
Learning Objectives
In this unit the student will be able to
- Calculate
theoretical probabilities of a range of events.
- Find the probability of 2 or more combined events.
- Use tree diagrams in order to find probabilities.
-
Appreciate the experimental approach to probability.
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